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Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision: Macro Projections and Market Scenarios

Shuvo Rahman
Shuvo Rahman (Macro Strategist)
Published: June 28, 20268 min read
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision: Macro Projections and Market Scenarios

Scenarios for the FOMC Meeting

Wall Street is anticipating the Fed interest rate announcement. Given the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) remaining slightly above the 2% target, economists are split on the speed of upcoming cuts.

Scenario A: Hawkish Pause (US Dollar Bullish)

If the Fed maintains rates and signals fewer cuts for the rest of the year, the US Dollar (DXY) will strengthen. EUR/USD is expected to break below 1.0700, and Gold could face sell-offs targeting $2,250.

Scenario B: Dovish Cut (Gold and Crypto Bullish)

If the Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points and acknowledges cooling labor markets, we expect capital to rotate out of cash. Under this scenario, Gold targets $2,450 and Bitcoin is positioned to break its consolidation range upwards.

Shuvo Rahman

About the Author: Shuvo Rahman

Shuvo Rahman has worked with global investment funds and now leads macro analysis at FX Bullet. He focuses on central bank policies, inflation data (CPI, NFP), and cryptocurrency liquidity mapping.